Will SIENNA SPIRO win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 79¢ · $272 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$272.02

Combined PnL

$2.92

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 78.5¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$232.28

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$7.57

Yes2 traders

Total Value$39.74

Total Shares209

Combined PnL-$4.65

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 76¢	$57	$60.75	+$3.75	17% 66-330 (396)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 76¢	$51.53	$51.02	-$0.51	3% 1-31 (32)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$34.05	$35.55	+$1.5	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$35.54	$24.99	-$5.43	84% 66-13 (79)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 75¢	$27.38	$23.79	+$0.4	39% 1053-1631 (2684)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 81¢	$21.9	$21.9	-$0	12% 21-155 (176)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 75¢	$19.52	$21.08	+$1.56	27% 104-283 (387)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$13.98	$14.76	+$0.78	41% 3122-4487 (7609)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 75¢	$11.75	$12.68	+$0.94	29% 882-2138 (3020)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 82¢	$5.57	$5.5	-$0.07	40% 1456-2158 (3614)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$57

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$51.53

Value

$51.02

PnL

-$0.51

Record

1-31 (32)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$34.05

Value

$35.55

PnL

+$1.5

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.54

Value

$24.99

PnL

-$5.43

Record

84%

66-13 (79)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$27.38

Value

$23.79

PnL

+$0.4

Record

39%

1053-1631 (2684)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$21.9

Value

$21.9

PnL

-$0

Record

12%

21-155 (176)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.52

Value

$21.08

PnL

+$1.56

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.98

Value

$14.76

PnL

+$0.78

Record

41%

3122-4487 (7609)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$11.75

Value

$12.68

PnL

+$0.94

Record

29%

882-2138 (3020)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$5.57

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.