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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.3K
$17.82
78.5¢ → 77¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 78.3¢ | $925.57 | $945.29 | +$19.72 | 0% 0-52 (52) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 77.9¢ | $199.7 | $202.72 | +$3.02 | 41% 3127-4493 (7620) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Noavg 81¢ | $123.07 | $71.06 | -$4.79 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $20.2 | $20.5 | +$0.3 | 3% 1-32 (33) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $13.94 | $13.5 | -$0.44 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$925.57
Value
$945.29
PnL
+$19.72
Record
0%
0-52 (52)
Invested
$199.7
Value
$202.72
PnL
+$3.02
Record
41%
3127-4493 (7620)
Invested
$123.07
Value
$71.06
PnL
-$4.79
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20.5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
3%
1-32 (33)
Invested
$13.94
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$0.44
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.