Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$15.39
50.3¢ → 49.3¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaaCTR | Noavg 49.3¢ | $900 | $900 | +$0 | 57% 817-625 (1442) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 62.4¢ | $399.73 | $233.99 | -$48.95 | 25% 282-835 (1117) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.8¢ | $109.51 | $118.54 | -$18.47 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.4¢ | $145.93 | $115.45 | -$30.48 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $94.8 | $146.8 | +$52 | 36% 14901-27010 (41911) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 66.2¢ | $146.63 | $55.12 | -$36.61 | 42% 5197-7120 (12317) |
paddaaCTRInvested
$900
Value
$900
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
817-625 (1442)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$399.73
Value
$233.99
PnL
-$48.95
Record
25%
282-835 (1117)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.8
Value
$146.8
PnL
+$52
Record
36%
14901-27010 (41911)
Invested
$146.63
Value
$55.12
PnL
-$36.61
Record
42%
5197-7120 (12317)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.