Will Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli win the 2027 Oyo State gubernatorial election?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 64¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.2K
$93.75
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 53.7¢ | $437.26 | $517.21 | +$79.95 | 53% 1103-983 (2086) |
 archaicCTR | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $298.64 | $280.9 | -$42.31 | 85% 1874-338 (2212) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yes | $237.94 | $237.94 | +$61.97 | 55% 444-365 (809) |
 ZaratustraCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $105 | $91.25 | -$13.75 | 62% 342-206 (548) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $63.64 | $71.53 | +$7.89 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
Invested
$437.26
Value
$517.21
PnL
+$79.95
Record
53%
1103-983 (2086)
archaicCTRInvested
$298.64
Value
$280.9
PnL
-$42.31
Record
85%
1874-338 (2212)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$237.94
Value
$237.94
PnL
+$61.97
Record
55%
444-365 (809)
ZaratustraCTRInvested
$105
Value
$91.25
PnL
-$13.75
Record
62%
342-206 (548)
Invested
$63.64
Value
$71.53
PnL
+$7.89
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.