Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 36¢ · $575 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$574.82
-$355.7
88.3¢ → 36.2¢
-59% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Yesavg 94.5¢ | $378 | $264 | -$114 | 56% 15268-11795 (27063) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 89.1¢ | $166.78 | $165.01 | -$0.43 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 85.5¢ | $690.62 | $126.26 | -$256.18 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.4¢ | $4.11 | $18.86 | +$14.75 | 36% 2032-3635 (5667) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $0.52 | $0.68 | +$0.16 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$378
Value
$264
PnL
-$114
Record
56%
15268-11795 (27063)
IstarothCTRInvested
$166.78
Value
$165.01
PnL
-$0.43
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Invested
$690.62
Value
$126.26
PnL
-$256.18
Record
36%
15093-27221 (42314)
Invested
$4.11
Value
$18.86
PnL
+$14.75
Record
36%
2032-3635 (5667)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.68
PnL
+$0.16
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.