Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 15¢ · $37 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$37.15
-$4.81
Research grade
AvoidNo at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $10 | $10.7 | +$0.7 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 76¢ | $9.32 | $10.36 | +$1.04 | 48% 1225-1315 (2540) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $10 | $7.75 | -$2.25 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 23.4¢ | $6.47 | $4.28 | -$2.19 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 23.5¢ | $6.18 | $4.07 | -$2.11 | 13% 50-327 (377) |
Invested
$10
Value
$10.7
PnL
+$0.7
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$9.32
Value
$10.36
PnL
+$1.04
Record
48%
1225-1315 (2540)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$7.75
PnL
-$2.25
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$6.47
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$2.19
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$6.18
Value
$4.07
PnL
-$2.11
Record
13%
50-327 (377)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.