Will Sébastien Lecornu win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 100¢ · $443 held · ends Apr 18, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Apr 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$442.68

Combined PnL

$67.84

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 99.9¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$440.64

Total Shares443

Combined PnL+$73.93

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.04

Total Shares408

Combined PnL-$6.09

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.9¢	$115.17	$114.76	-$0.41	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$99.67	$89.55	-$0.15	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$70.01	$70.16	+$0.15	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$73.39	$59.7	+$0.8	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 8.6¢	$9.93	$39.8	+$73.72	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$36.87	$36.82	-$0.06	31% 3488-7778 (11266)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.85	-$0.12	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$6.95	$1.78	-$5.17	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.24	$0.12	-$0.12	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$0.86	$0.1	-$0.83	41% 6218-9125 (15343)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.04	+$0.03	53% 29258-26174 (55432)

donthackme

Invested

$115.17

Value

$114.76

PnL

-$0.41

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$99.67

Value

$89.55

PnL

-$0.15

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$70.01

Value

$70.16

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$73.39

Value

$59.7

PnL

+$0.8

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.93

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$73.72

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$36.87

Value

$36.82

PnL

-$0.06

Record

31%

3488-7778 (11266)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.85

PnL

-$0.12

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.95

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$5.17

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.12

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.83

Record

41%

6218-9125 (15343)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.