Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (31%) · No at 99¢ · $505 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 31%

Total Value

$505.05

Combined PnL

-$122.62

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99.3¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$420.57

Total Shares423

Combined PnL+$9.45

Yes9 traders

Total Value$84.48

Total Shares12,068

Combined PnL-$132.07

No — 31%Yes — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

300h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 97¢	$339.39	$347.55	+$8.16	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$45.16	$46.66	+$1.5	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$21.97	$21.37	-$0.61	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$33.61	$20.73	-$28.63	31% 657-1446 (2103)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$39.88	$16.47	-$21.9	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$31.67	$15.92	-$14.6	41% 2019-2860 (4879)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$26.79	$11.3	-$15.49	43% 470-622 (1092)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yes	$10.89	$10.89	-$27.36	40% 2746-4113 (6859)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$28.56	$7.27	-$38.67	50% 2435-2398 (4833)
IN influenz.eth<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$54.32	$4.99	+$0.4	42% 10359-14389 (24748)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.86	$1.1	+$5.86	40% 9714-14610 (24324)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.27	$0.62	+$0.35	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$45.09	$0.18	+$8.37	77% 12312-3779 (16091)

smallreceipt

Invested

$339.39

Value

$347.55

PnL

+$8.16

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

merod<$100

Invested

$45.16

Value

$46.66

PnL

+$1.5

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$21.97

Value

$21.37

PnL

-$0.61

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.61

Value

$20.73

PnL

-$28.63

Record

31%

657-1446 (2103)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.88

Value

$16.47

PnL

-$21.9

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.67

Value

$15.92

PnL

-$14.6

Record

41%

2019-2860 (4879)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.79

Value

$11.3

PnL

-$15.49

Record

43%

470-622 (1092)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.89

Value

$10.89

PnL

-$27.36

Record

40%

2746-4113 (6859)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.56

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$38.67

Record

50%

2435-2398 (4833)

influenz.eth<$100

Invested

$54.32

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.4

Record

42%

10359-14389 (24748)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$5.86

Record

40%

9714-14610 (24324)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.35

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.09

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$8.37

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

300h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.