Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Scottie Barnes win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$1.51
-$3.17
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.47 | $0.44 | -$1.03 | 39% 1057-1631 (2688) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.25 | $0.38 | -$0.88 | 55% 56-46 (102) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.02 | $0.31 | -$0.71 | 82% 69-15 (84) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.59 | $0.18 | -$0.42 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.15 | $0.15 | +$0 | 40% 1466-2159 (3625) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.11 | $0.03 | -$0.08 | — 9-0 (9) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.08 | $0.03 | -$0.06 | 41% 3187-4522 (7709) |
Invested
$1.47
Value
$0.44
PnL
-$1.03
Record
39%
1057-1631 (2688)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$1.25
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$0.88
Record
55%
56-46 (102)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$0.71
Record
82%
69-15 (84)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.59
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.42
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1466-2159 (3625)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.08
Record
—
9-0 (9)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.06
Record
41%
3187-4522 (7709)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.