Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will Scott Wiener win the CA-11 House seat?
Resolved Yes. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Yes 100%
$2.2K
$64.42
Smart Money Signal
9 of 26 top traders (35%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Yesavg 99.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$27.1 | 40% 1584-2384 (3968) |
AU auros2<$100 | Yes | $83 | $83 | +$16.52 | — 6-1 (7) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100 | Yesavg 91.1¢ | $13.25 | $13.14 | -$0.1 | 51% 317-306 (623) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $4.73 | $7 | +$13.42 | 71% 13984-5672 (19656) |
SI SitsToPee<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $2.32 | $4 | +$1.68 | 54% 828-711 (1539) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 67% 27587-13890 (41477) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 31079-29042 (60121) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 12604-11065 (23669) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 27% 621-1686 (2307) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 70.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 34% 19439-36995 (56434) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Noavg 32.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 37% 4060-6783 (10843) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $26.48 | — | -$0.48 | 17% 1362-6612 (7974) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 16860-12171 (29031) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 15837-11514 (27351) |
 bernardbulletinCTR<$100 | Noavg 30.7¢ | $0.04 | — | -$0.04 | 70% 1188-499 (1687) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 10655-14126 (24781) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 38% 7338-11775 (19113) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 6592-9939 (16531) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $12.83 | — | +$60.53 | 47% 10383-11860 (22243) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 9444-11174 (20618) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 8800-11453 (20253) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 34% 3345-6360 (9705) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 37.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 38% 7188-11813 (19001) |
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | — | — | +$0 | 39% 5795-9174 (14969) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | — | — | +$0 | 77% 12726-3889 (16615) |
probabilityInvested
$2,130.53
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$27.1
Record
40%
1584-2384 (3968)
Invested
$83
Value
$83
PnL
+$16.52
Record
—
6-1 (7)
Invested
$13.25
Value
$13.14
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
317-306 (623)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.73
Value
$7
PnL
+$13.42
Record
71%
13984-5672 (19656)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$4
PnL
+$1.68
Record
54%
828-711 (1539)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
27587-13890 (41477)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
31079-29042 (60121)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
12604-11065 (23669)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
621-1686 (2307)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
19439-36995 (56434)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
4060-6783 (10843)
Invested
$26.48
Value
—
PnL
-$0.48
Record
17%
1362-6612 (7974)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
16860-12171 (29031)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
15837-11514 (27351)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100Invested
$0.04
Value
—
PnL
-$0.04
Record
70%
1188-499 (1687)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
10655-14126 (24781)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
7338-11775 (19113)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
6592-9939 (16531)
Invested
$12.83
Value
—
PnL
+$60.53
Record
47%
10383-11860 (22243)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
9444-11174 (20618)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
8800-11453 (20253)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
3345-6360 (9705)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
7188-11813 (19001)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
5795-9174 (14969)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
77%
12726-3889 (16615)