Will Scott Bessent be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 98¢ · $171 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$170.84

Combined PnL

$10.4

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 97.7¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$163.28

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$8.17

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.56

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$2.22

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

786h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lineth<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$76.4	$81.43	+$6.8	44% 285-364 (649)
QM QMG-CORE<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$37.68	$39.7	+$2.86	77% 1490-445 (1935)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$44.37	$32.57	-$1.24	46% 9400-11138 (20538)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$4.84	$4.79	-$0.05	77% 12697-3875 (16572)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.99	$4.79	-$0.2	31% 4467-9741 (14208)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$3.38	$4.28	+$0.9	53% 1928-1704 (3632)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.03	$3.28	+$1.32	45% 742-890 (1632)

lineth<$100

Invested

$76.4

Value

$81.43

PnL

+$6.8

Record

44%

285-364 (649)

QMG-CORE<$100

Invested

$37.68

Value

$39.7

PnL

+$2.86

Record

77%

1490-445 (1935)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$44.37

Value

$32.57

PnL

-$1.24

Record

46%

9400-11138 (20538)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.05

Record

77%

12697-3875 (16572)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.2

Record

31%

4467-9741 (14208)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.38

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

1928-1704 (3632)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$1.32

Record

45%

742-890 (1632)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

786h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.