Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Mar 31, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.8K
$121.01
95.9¢ → 97.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
536h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 95.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$27.36 | 41% 1399-2008 (3407) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98.6¢ | $208.41 | $206 | -$2.4 | 77% 11691-3586 (15277) |
MA MaxEntCTR | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $48.02 | $137.5 | +$52.5 | 32% 129-275 (404) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $5.29 | $30.58 | +$25.29 | 21% 2284-8698 (10982) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $11.27 | $23.42 | +$12.15 | 38% 2935-4692 (7627) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $13.67 | $19.78 | +$6.11 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
probabilityInvested
$1,376.31
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$27.36
Record
41%
1399-2008 (3407)
Invested
$208.41
Value
$206
PnL
-$2.4
Record
77%
11691-3586 (15277)
Invested
$48.02
Value
$137.5
PnL
+$52.5
Record
32%
129-275 (404)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.29
Value
$30.58
PnL
+$25.29
Record
21%
2284-8698 (10982)
Invested
$11.27
Value
$23.42
PnL
+$12.15
Record
38%
2935-4692 (7627)
Invested
$13.67
Value
$19.78
PnL
+$6.11
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.