Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sandra Hüller be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 30¢ · $40 held · ends Mar 15, 2027

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Mon, Mar 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$39.56

Combined PnL

-$0.38

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$28.8

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$1.3

Yes4 traders

Total Value$10.76

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$0.92

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$30.1	$28.8	-$1.3	53% 5438-4880 (10318)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$3.75	$4.2	+$0.45	41% 3059-4446 (7505)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$2.45	$2.78	+$0.35	53% 335-299 (634)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$2.45	$2.36	-$0.08	85% 62-11 (73)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.22	$1.42	+$0.2	50% 22-22 (44)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.1

Value

$28.8

PnL

-$1.3

Record

53%

5438-4880 (10318)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.45

Record

41%

3059-4446 (7505)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

335-299 (634)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$0.08

Record

85%

62-11 (73)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

22-22 (44)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.