Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sam Darnold win the 2026 NFL MVP?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $26 held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$25.84

Combined PnL

-$220.28

Smart Money Entry

2.4¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$25.84

Total Shares10,337

Combined PnL-$220.28

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

121h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$193.28	$19.33	-$173.95	55% 1473-1229 (2702)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$13.92	$1.5	-$12.42	40% 256-391 (647)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$8.57	$1.45	-$7.12	39% 2916-4532 (7448)
4Q 4qfrankieCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$6.47	$1.15	-$6.24	46% 196-233 (429)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.83	$0.91	-$7.92	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$6.12	$0.76	-$5.35	40% 6648-10054 (16702)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.79	$0.5	-$4.9	55% 3188-2644 (5832)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.36	$0.15	-$1.47	18% 109-507 (616)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.81	$0.08	-$0.73	32% 3312-7188 (10500)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.19	$0.02	-$0.17	68% 13289-6320 (19609)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$193.28

Value

$19.33

PnL

-$173.95

Record

55%

1473-1229 (2702)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.92

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$12.42

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.57

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$7.12

Record

39%

2916-4532 (7448)

4qfrankieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.47

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$6.24

Record

46%

196-233 (429)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.83

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$7.92

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.12

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$5.35

Record

40%

6648-10054 (16702)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$4.9

Record

55%

3188-2644 (5832)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.47

Record

18%

109-507 (616)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.73

Record

32%

3312-7188 (10500)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.17

Record

68%

13289-6320 (19609)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

121h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.