Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$1.7K
-$62.94
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Late
4901h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod | Noavg 99.9¢ | $614.08 | $613.92 | -$0.17 | 43% 3133-4188 (7321) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $336.76 | $336.73 | -$0.03 | 44% 6482-8172 (14654) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $302.7 | $302.55 | -$0.15 | 42% 7028-9819 (16847) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.9¢ | $200.5 | $200.4 | -$0.1 | 42% 3180-4317 (7497) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.9¢ | $144.86 | $144.78 | -$0.07 | 49% 8853-9359 (18212) |
RA rated | Noavg 99.4¢ | $166.06 | $62.91 | -$51.73 | 29% 2904-7032 (9936) |
CR cry.eth2<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $42.04 | $31.55 | -$1.21 | 40% 9714-14610 (24324) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $243.98 | $19.97 | +$0.03 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
WO wokerjoesleeper | Noavg 98.9¢ | $370.51 | $3.08 | +$0.54 | 33% 6464-13327 (19791) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.56 | $0.56 | -$7.59 | 55% 3145-2528 (5673) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $7.13 | $0.34 | -$2.29 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.22 | $0.05 | -$0.18 | 18% 4284-20059 (24343) |
Invested
$614.08
Value
$613.92
PnL
-$0.17
Record
43%
3133-4188 (7321)
Invested
$336.76
Value
$336.73
PnL
-$0.03
Record
44%
6482-8172 (14654)
Invested
$302.7
Value
$302.55
PnL
-$0.15
Record
42%
7028-9819 (16847)
Invested
$200.5
Value
$200.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
42%
3180-4317 (7497)
Invested
$144.86
Value
$144.78
PnL
-$0.07
Record
49%
8853-9359 (18212)
Invested
$166.06
Value
$62.91
PnL
-$51.73
Record
29%
2904-7032 (9936)
Invested
$42.04
Value
$31.55
PnL
-$1.21
Record
40%
9714-14610 (24324)
Invested
$243.98
Value
$19.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Invested
$370.51
Value
$3.08
PnL
+$0.54
Record
33%
6464-13327 (19791)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$7.59
Record
55%
3145-2528 (5673)
Invested
$7.13
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$2.29
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.18
Record
18%
4284-20059 (24343)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.