Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.2K
$347.94
61.3¢ → 73.5¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrueDignity | Noavg 60.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$217.07 | 36% 42-74 (116) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 53¢ | $565.37 | $538.7 | +$114.34 | 35% 14791-26919 (41710) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $112.68 | $150.24 | +$37.56 | 74% 2703-970 (3673) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 77.6¢ | $181.17 | $150.2 | -$13.65 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 81.6¢ | $73.95 | $66.58 | -$7.37 | 42% 5192-7111 (12303) |
Invested
$1,053.71
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$217.07
Record
36%
42-74 (116)
Invested
$565.37
Value
$538.7
PnL
+$114.34
Record
35%
14791-26919 (41710)
viniiCTRInvested
$112.68
Value
$150.24
PnL
+$37.56
Record
74%
2703-970 (3673)
IstarothInvested
$181.17
Value
$150.2
PnL
-$13.65
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Invested
$73.95
Value
$66.58
PnL
-$7.37
Record
42%
5192-7111 (12303)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.