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paddaaCTR<$100YesYes
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100YesNo
2B9SCTR<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Ryan Posselt win the next Hobart mayoral election?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$44.74
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares290
Combined PnL-$44.74
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 67%No — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $43 | — | -$44.74 | 57% 823-628 (1451) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | — | — | +$0 | 77% 11174-3429 (14603) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 15281-11831 (27112) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15244-27336 (42580) |
2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3793-17172 (20965) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 1124-1007 (2131) |
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$43
Value
—
PnL
-$44.74
Record
57%
823-628 (1451)
EL
Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
77%
11174-3429 (14603)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
15281-11831 (27112)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15244-27336 (42580)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3793-17172 (20965)
SN
SnapElectionAvoider<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1124-1007 (2131)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb211c8e5...416cd5
Slug
will-ryan-posselt-win-the-2026-hobart-mayoral-election