Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $798 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$798.28

Combined PnL

$1.24

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 98.8¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$798.11

Total Shares807

Combined PnL+$1.24

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$0

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 98.8¢	$369.33	$369.7	+$0.37	73% 12946-4868 (17814)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 98.9¢	$110.31	$110.26	-$0.05	51% 3739-3587 (7326)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$93.75	$93.96	+$0.21	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 99¢	$83	$82.96	-$0.05	49% 752-789 (1541)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$79.2	$79.12	-$0.08	53% 23002-20232 (43234)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$34.97	$35.7	+$0.73	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99¢	$21	$20.99	-$0.01	47% 1706-1889 (3595)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.32	$5.42	+$0.1	44% 6563-8231 (14794)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.17	$0.17	+$0	35% 18692-34699 (53391)

donthackme

Invested

$369.33

Value

$369.7

PnL

+$0.37

Record

73%

12946-4868 (17814)

haveagoodday

Invested

$110.31

Value

$110.26

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

3739-3587 (7326)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$93.75

Value

$93.96

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$83

Value

$82.96

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

752-789 (1541)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.2

Value

$79.12

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.97

Value

$35.7

PnL

+$0.73

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$20.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1706-1889 (3595)

korda77<$100

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

6563-8231 (14794)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.