Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 27¢ · $795 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 20%
1 arb excluded
$794.91
-$214.58
Research grade
AvoidNo at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
255h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GohstCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $444.39 | $238.46 | -$205.94 | 49% 733-764 (1497) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 27.9¢ | $483.53 | $187.3 | +$37.19 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 27.9¢ | $124.38 | $109.29 | +$58.64 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60.9¢ | $62.97 | $78.01 | -$21.45 | |
 Zaratustra | Yesavg 80¢ | $160 | $159 | -$1 | 62% 343-207 (550) |
 Bromley86<$100 | Yesavg 83.3¢ | $99.98 | $92.38 | -$7.6 | 90% 719-80 (799) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 86.2¢ | $84.34 | $83.62 | -$0.72 | 18% 3784-17134 (20918) |
 crypto-basenji<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $33.47 | $34.15 | +$0.68 | 38% 168-277 (445) |
GohstCTRInvested
$444.39
Value
$238.46
PnL
-$205.94
Record
49%
733-764 (1497)
Invested
$483.53
Value
$187.3
PnL
+$37.19
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Both legs:
ZaratustraInvested
$160
Value
$159
PnL
-$1
Record
62%
343-207 (550)
Bromley86<$100Invested
$99.98
Value
$92.38
PnL
-$7.6
Record
90%
719-80 (799)
2B9S<$100Invested
$84.34
Value
$83.62
PnL
-$0.72
Record
18%
3784-17134 (20918)
crypto-basenji<$100Invested
$33.47
Value
$34.15
PnL
+$0.68
Record
38%
168-277 (445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.