Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$36.67

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 74.5¢

-9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$952.87

Total Shares1,279

Combined PnL-$82.52

No3 traders

Total Value$126.13

Total Shares505

Combined PnL+$45.85

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DumplingBMF	Yesavg 82.6¢	$866.28	$781.31	-$84.97	68% 1813-844 (2657)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 78.3¢	$169.11	$171.56	+$2.45	36% 15335-27408 (42743)
NiceDuckBroCTR	Noavg 16.7¢	$80.85	$121.25	+$45.25	65% 324-174 (498)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$3.34	$3.79	+$0.45	76% 11179-3442 (14621)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$0.97	$1.1	+$0.15	38% 168-280 (448)

DumplingBMF

Yes

Invested

$866.28

Value

$781.31

PnL

-$84.97

Record

68%

1813-844 (2657)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$169.11

Value

$171.56

PnL

+$2.45

Record

36%

15335-27408 (42743)

NiceDuckBroCTR

Invested

$80.85

Value

$121.25

PnL

+$45.25

Record

65%

324-174 (498)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$0.45

Record

76%

11179-3442 (14621)

crypto-basenjiCTR<$100

Invested

$0.97

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.15

Record

38%

168-280 (448)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.5%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.