Will Russia enter Moskovka by December 31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 99¢ · $431 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$430.53
-$30.16
96.6¢ → 98.6¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tsybka | Yesavg 97¢ | $415.44 | $415.44 | +$0 | — |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 81¢ | $7.03 | $8.42 | +$1.39 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.6¢ | $3.27 | $2.41 | -$0.86 | — 7-12 (19) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $14.98 | $2.03 | -$12.95 | 12% 16-115 (131) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 23.4¢ | $15.76 | $1.28 | -$14.48 | 41% 3064-4447 (7511) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $30.99 | $0.95 | -$3.25 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
tsybkaInvested
$415.44
Value
$415.44
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$7.03
Value
$8.42
PnL
+$1.39
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
Invested
$3.27
Value
$2.41
PnL
-$0.86
Record
—
7-12 (19)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$14.98
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$12.95
Record
12%
16-115 (131)
Invested
$15.76
Value
$1.28
PnL
-$14.48
Record
41%
3064-4447 (7511)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$30.99
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$3.25
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.