Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $529 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$529.03
$3.46
74.7¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 75¢ | $305.98 | $305.98 | -$0 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
WA WarriorHARB<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $121.56 | $78.53 | -$1.03 | — 0-12 (12) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.6¢ | $56.64 | $57.74 | -$1.03 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27¢ | $20.79 | $20.79 | +$0 | |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $51.46 | $51.97 | +$0.51 | — 1-9 (10) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $44.78 | $46.01 | +$1.23 | — 12-2 (14) |
 DumplingBMFCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $24.23 | $25.17 | +$0.93 | 0% 0-116 (116) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $20.58 | $21.37 | +$0.79 | — 8-9 (17) |
Invested
$305.98
Value
$305.98
PnL
-$0
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Invested
$121.56
Value
$78.53
PnL
-$1.03
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.46
Value
$51.97
PnL
+$0.51
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$44.78
Value
$46.01
PnL
+$1.23
Record
—
12-2 (14)
DumplingBMFCTR<$100Invested
$24.23
Value
$25.17
PnL
+$0.93
Record
0%
0-116 (116)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$20.58
Value
$21.37
PnL
+$0.79
Record
—
8-9 (17)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.