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NiceDuckBroYes
Bromley86Yes
DumplingBMFYesNoNo
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100No
Istaroth<$100YesNo
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?
Resolved Yes. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 100%
Total Value
$9.4K
Combined PnL
$1.3K
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$9.4K
Total Shares9,361
Combined PnL+$1.3K
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 50%No — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NiceDuckBro | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$24.24 | 65% 325-175 (500) |
Bromley86 | Yesavg 99.4¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$17.67 | 90% 721-80 (801) |
DumplingBMF | Yesavg 33.6¢ | $615.85 | $1.8K | +$1.2K | 68% 1818-846 (2664) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 65.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 2060-3677 (5737) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 76% 11221-3466 (14687) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 15322-11880 (27202) |
Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 22.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 19% 335-1419 (1754) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
NiceDuckBroInvested
$4,600.53
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$24.24
Record
65%
325-175 (500)
Bromley86Invested
$2,888.04
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$17.67
Record
90%
721-80 (801)
DumplingBMFInvested
$615.85
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
68%
1818-846 (2664)
HE
HerrieDavisCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
2060-3677 (5737)
EL
Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11221-3466 (14687)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
15322-11880 (27202)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
19%
335-1419 (1754)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x272ce757...1d8ac1
Slug
will-russia-capture-svitle-by-october-31-20260805161409631