Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 25¢ · $98 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$97.55

Combined PnL

-$6.93

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$83.78

Total Shares322

Combined PnL-$7.44

No2 traders

Total Value$13.77

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$0.52

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$76.22	$70.78	-$5.44	— 8-8 (16)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$15	$13	-$2	16% 10-52 (62)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 75¢	$8.25	$8.25	+$0	— 12-2 (14)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 68¢	$5	$5.52	+$0.52	40% 3001-4411 (7412)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.22

Value

$70.78

PnL

-$5.44

Record

—

8-8 (16)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$13

PnL

-$2

Record

16%

10-52 (62)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0

Record

—

12-2 (14)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

Value

$5.52

PnL

+$0.52

Record

40%

3001-4411 (7412)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$284.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

384.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.