Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 58¢ · $253 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$253.27
-$0
58¢ → 58¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WarriorHARB<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $140.39 | $139 | -$1.39 | — 0-10 (10) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59¢ | $82.01 | $80.62 | -$1.39 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42¢ | $58.38 | $58.38 | -$0 | |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 58¢ | $103.48 | $103.48 | -$0 | — 3-6 (9) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $6.26 | $6.26 | -$0 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $4.53 | $4.53 | +$0 | — 9-2 (11) |
Invested
$140.39
Value
$139
PnL
-$1.39
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Both legs:
HaradwaithInvested
$103.48
Value
$103.48
PnL
-$0
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$6.26
Value
$6.26
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Invested
$4.53
Value
$4.53
PnL
+$0
Record
—
9-2 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.