Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$32.92
68.6¢ → 73.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 73.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | +$62.06 | 36% 14556-26000 (40556) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 73.7¢ | $949.28 | $947.13 | -$77.61 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 22.9¢ | $324.6 | $375.66 | +$139.67 | |
 DumplingBMF | Yesavg 68¢ | $305.47 | $330.18 | +$24.71 | 68% 1793-827 (2620) |
HE HerrieDavis | Yesavg 69.4¢ | $198.03 | $211.09 | +$4.5 | 36% 2019-3575 (5594) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $3.92 | $7.58 | +$3.66 | 38% 166-273 (439) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $4.06 | $4.11 | +$0.05 | 72% 476-183 (659) |
Invested
$1,584.17
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$62.06
Record
36%
14556-26000 (40556)
Both legs:
DumplingBMFInvested
$305.47
Value
$330.18
PnL
+$24.71
Record
68%
1793-827 (2620)
Invested
$198.03
Value
$211.09
PnL
+$4.5
Record
36%
2019-3575 (5594)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100Invested
$3.92
Value
$7.58
PnL
+$3.66
Record
38%
166-273 (439)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$4.06
Value
$4.11
PnL
+$0.05
Record
72%
476-183 (659)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.