Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Russell T. Vought be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $80 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$80.37

Combined PnL

$15.6

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$78.61

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$16.29

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.77

Total Shares354

Combined PnL-$0.7

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$94.74	$34.83	+$16.35	43% 8732-11387 (20119)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$33.87	$33.83	-$0.04	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.95	-$0.01	31% 4440-9727 (14167)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.08	$1.26	+$0.31	46% 741-884 (1625)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.19	$0.24	+$0.05	19% 2850-12163 (15013)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.27	$0.2	-$0.07	26% 554-1607 (2161)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$1.05	$0.07	-$0.98	77% 12683-3867 (16550)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$94.74

Value

$34.83

PnL

+$16.35

Record

43%

8732-11387 (20119)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$33.87

Value

$33.83

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$0.01

Record

31%

4440-9727 (14167)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.31

Record

46%

741-884 (1625)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.05

Record

19%

2850-12163 (15013)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.07

Record

26%

554-1607 (2161)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.98

Record

77%

12683-3867 (16550)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6313.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

6414.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.