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3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $136 held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$136.33
-$0.46
90.4¢ → 90¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 90¢ | $225 | $104.79 | +$3.12 | 48% 23-25 (48) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $21 | $21 | +$0 | — 1-18 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $6.79 | $8.49 | +$1.7 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $1.04 | $0.97 | -$0.07 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $37.75 | $0.7 | -$5.67 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $1.91 | $0.39 | +$0.48 | 66% 4093-2118 (6211) |
HaradwaithInvested
$225
Value
$104.79
PnL
+$3.12
Record
48%
23-25 (48)
Invested
$21
Value
$21
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$8.49
PnL
+$1.7
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.97
PnL
-$0.07
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$37.75
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$5.67
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
Invested
$1.91
Value
$0.39
PnL
+$0.48
Record
66%
4093-2118 (6211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.