Will "Run This Town" be played at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 57¢ · $84 held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$83.9

Combined PnL

$0.96

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$70.36

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$14.49

No1 trader

Total Value$13.54

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$13.54

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 51.3¢	$25.99	$28.38	+$2.39	40% 3001-4411 (7412)
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$22.22	$22	-$0.22	— 0-12 (12)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$96.37	$13.54	-$13.54	— 10-8 (18)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.46	$12.91	+$12.45	16% 10-52 (62)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$7.2	$7.07	-$0.13	52% 244-227 (471)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.99

Value

$28.38

PnL

+$2.39

Record

40%

3001-4411 (7412)

WarriorH<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.22

Value

$22

PnL

-$0.22

Record

—

0-12 (12)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Invested

$96.37

Value

$13.54

PnL

-$13.54

Record

—

10-8 (18)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$12.91

PnL

+$12.45

Record

16%

10-52 (62)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

244-227 (471)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.