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7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$175.31

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 92.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,671

Combined PnL-$183.39

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.74

Total Shares319

Combined PnL+$8.08

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 85.7¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$128.68	15% 459-2699 (3158)
balthazar	Noavg 90.4¢	$169.95	$152.19	-$17.76	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
Lucerys	Noavg 89.5¢	$107.75	$97.2	-$9.44	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
PI PiEDawg	Noavg 90.5¢	$105.83	$94.77	-$11.06	49% 1735-1833 (3568)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 85¢	$62.04	$51.3	-$10.74	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$45.72	$41.2	-$4	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 16.2¢	$172.53	$24.58	+$8.52	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$16.13	$14.42	-$1.71	50% 634-639 (1273)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yes	$21.53	$3.23	-$1.24	25% 1703-5171 (6874)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$6.43	$0.94	+$0.8	42% 5366-7297 (12663)

Istaroth

Invested

$1,214.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$128.68

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

balthazar

Invested

$169.95

Value

$152.19

PnL

-$17.76

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Lucerys

Invested

$107.75

Value

$97.2

PnL

-$9.44

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

PiEDawg

Invested

$105.83

Value

$94.77

PnL

-$11.06

Record

49%

1735-1833 (3568)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$62.04

Value

$51.3

PnL

-$10.74

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$45.72

Value

$41.2

PnL

-$4

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$172.53

Value

$24.58

PnL

+$8.52

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$16.13

Value

$14.42

PnL

-$1.71

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.53

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$1.24

Record

25%

1703-5171 (6874)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.43

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.8

Record

42%

5366-7297 (12663)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.