Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $48 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$48.34

Combined PnL

-$0.87

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$48.12

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$1.04

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.22

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.17

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.7	$29.1	-$0.6	15% 65-373 (438)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99¢	$10.15	$9.94	-$0.21	26% 858-2483 (3341)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$7.96	$7.76	-$0.2	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$1.36	$1.32	-$0.04	79% 348-95 (443)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.04	$0.22	+$0.17	41% 3108-4463 (7571)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.1

PnL

-$0.6

Record

15%

65-373 (438)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$10.15

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.21

Record

26%

858-2483 (3341)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$7.96

Value

$7.76

PnL

-$0.2

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

79%

348-95 (443)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.17

Record

41%

3108-4463 (7571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.