Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$392.99

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 96.9¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,998

Combined PnL+$548.44

Yes4 traders

Total Value$75.08

Total Shares1,866

Combined PnL-$155.46

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DirkDiggler67	Noavg 71.2¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$440.53	60% 524-343 (867)
LI lineth	Noavg 51.1¢	$111.66	$207.03	+$102.14	44% 280-362 (642)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 35.2¢	$360.61	$34.3	-$326.31	56% 18392-14302 (32694)
SI singularitymanCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$85.33	$33.23	-$52.09	42% 152-208 (360)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$47.67	$32.22	+$6.89	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$29.56	$28.43	-$1.11	47% 8498-9698 (18196)
BU buoysCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$373.99	$7.14	+$223.72	45% 734-881 (1615)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$1.18	$0.4	-$0.78	77% 12520-3844 (16364)

DirkDiggler67

Invested

$1,220.91

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$440.53

Record

60%

524-343 (867)

lineth

Invested

$111.66

Value

$207.03

PnL

+$102.14

Record

44%

280-362 (642)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$360.61

Value

$34.3

PnL

-$326.31

Record

56%

18392-14302 (32694)

singularitymanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.33

Value

$33.23

PnL

-$52.09

Record

42%

152-208 (360)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$47.67

Value

$32.22

PnL

+$6.89

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.56

Value

$28.43

PnL

-$1.11

Record

47%

8498-9698 (18196)

buoysCTR

Yes

Invested

$373.99

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$223.72

Record

45%

734-881 (1615)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.78

Record

77%

12520-3844 (16364)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.