Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Riz Ahmed win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $40 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$40.08
-$5.24
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.92 | $39.84 | -$0.08 | 53% 5981-5353 (11334) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.39 | $0.1 | -$0.29 | 2% 1-59 (60) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $11.32 | $0.04 | -$4.62 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.14 | $0.04 | -$0.1 | 23% 511-1699 (2210) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.11 | $0.03 | -$0.08 | 40% 3214-4824 (8038) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.08 | $0.02 | -$0.06 | 38% 58-96 (154) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 26% 866-2503 (3369) |
Invested
$39.92
Value
$39.84
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
5981-5353 (11334)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.29
Record
2%
1-59 (60)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$11.32
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$4.62
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.1
Record
23%
511-1699 (2210)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.08
Record
40%
3214-4824 (8038)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.06
Record
38%
58-96 (154)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
866-2503 (3369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.