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3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$661.76

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 52.5¢

+29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,362

Combined PnL+$295.95

No4 traders

Total Value$461.06

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL+$365.81

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 41.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$282.6	62% 367-226 (593)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 21.4¢	$66.16	$184.19	+$118.03	53% 8083-7183 (15266)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 18.8¢	$149.27	$151.42	+$138.84	35% 17899-33380 (51279)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$265.54	$149.15	-$47.53	15% 447-2555 (3002)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$77.96	$80.2	+$1.66
└ No leg	Noavg 51.5¢	$77.24	$68.96	-$49.2
SM smallreceiptCTR	Noavg 14.8¢	$53.13	$108.1	+$104.84	49% 8663-9182 (17845)
LornaPredictsARB<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$36.55	$73.75	+$37.2	20% 2544-10095 (12639)
└ No leg	Noavg 34.5¢	$34.5	$47.5	+$13
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.1¢	$2.05	$26.25	+$24.2
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$20	$19.9	-$0.1	17% 1116-5546 (6662)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 35.1¢	$24.39	$17.35	+$4.1	17% 297-1435 (1732)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$5.4	$16.26	+$13.45	78% 12157-3379 (15536)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$1,054.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$282.6

Record

62%

367-226 (593)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$66.16

Value

$184.19

PnL

+$118.03

Record

53%

8083-7183 (15266)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$149.27

Value

$151.42

PnL

+$138.84

Record

35%

17899-33380 (51279)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$265.54

Value

$149.15

PnL

-$47.53

Record

15%

447-2555 (3002)

Both legs:

Yes$77.9652¢+$1.66

No$77.2451.5¢-$49.2

smallreceiptCTR

Invested

$53.13

Value

$108.1

PnL

+$104.84

Record

49%

8663-9182 (17845)

LornaPredictsARB<$100

Invested

$36.55

Value

$73.75

PnL

+$37.2

Record

20%

2544-10095 (12639)

Both legs:

Invested

$20

Value

$19.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

17%

1116-5546 (6662)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$24.39

Value

$17.35

PnL

+$4.1

Record

17%

297-1435 (1732)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$16.26

PnL

+$13.45

Record

78%

12157-3379 (15536)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.