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No
paddaaCTRNo
balthazarCTR<$100NoNoNo
2B9SCTR<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Rick Shegog win the next West Tamar mayoral election?
Resolved Yes. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 100%
Total Value
$319.89
Combined PnL
-$183.73
Smart Money Signal
No
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No6 traders
Total Value$319.89
Total Shares702
Combined PnL-$183.73
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 31.3¢ | $264.58 | $188.58 | -$101.57 | 36% 15138-27265 (42403) |
paddaaCTR | Noavg 37.9¢ | $274 | $131.31 | -$81.79 | 57% 818-626 (1444) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $2 | — | +$17.33 | 61% 20853-13273 (34126) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $3.4 | — | -$3.4 | 42% 5202-7132 (12334) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $5.8 | — | -$3.9 | 77% 11161-3416 (14577) |
2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.4 | — | -$10.4 | 18% 3790-17156 (20946) |
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTRInvested
$264.58
Value
$188.58
PnL
-$101.57
Record
36%
15138-27265 (42403)
paddaaCTRInvested
$274
Value
$131.31
PnL
-$81.79
Record
57%
818-626 (1444)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
+$17.33
Record
61%
20853-13273 (34126)
LI
lissartterCTR<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
—
PnL
-$3.4
Record
42%
5202-7132 (12334)
EL
Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100Invested
$5.8
Value
—
PnL
-$3.9
Record
77%
11161-3416 (14577)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$10.4
Value
—
PnL
-$10.4
Record
18%
3790-17156 (20946)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa7432217...642f39
Slug
will-rick-shegog-win-the-2026-west-tamar-mayoral-election