Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ricardo Rodríguez Vargas win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $101 held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$100.92
-$20.11
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.62 | $99.57 | -$0.05 | 31% 1057-2405 (3462) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $7.27 | $0.46 | -$6.81 | 35% 3807-6929 (10736) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $5.41 | $0.34 | -$5.07 | 39% 3661-5820 (9481) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $4.17 | $0.26 | -$3.91 | 42% 2632-3664 (6296) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $2.02 | $0.13 | -$1.9 | 36% 263-468 (731) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.67 | $0.11 | -$1.56 | 43% 5103-6732 (11835) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.6 | $0.04 | -$0.56 | 35% 290-535 (825) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.15 | $0.01 | -$0.14 | 14% 90-553 (643) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.12 | $0.01 | -$0.11 | 37% 1544-2643 (4187) |
Invested
$99.62
Value
$99.57
PnL
-$0.05
Record
31%
1057-2405 (3462)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$7.27
Value
$0.46
PnL
-$6.81
Record
35%
3807-6929 (10736)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$5.07
Record
39%
3661-5820 (9481)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$3.91
Record
42%
2632-3664 (6296)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$1.9
Record
36%
263-468 (731)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$1.56
Record
43%
5103-6732 (11835)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.56
Record
35%
290-535 (825)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.14
Record
14%
90-553 (643)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.11
Record
37%
1544-2643 (4187)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.