Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Rhett Lowder win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $71 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$70.95
-$39.8
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
55h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $69.84 | $69.87 | +$0.03 | 73% 12849-4764 (17613) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.93 | $0.93 | -$39.55 | 47% 8323-9487 (17810) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.03 | $0.06 | +$0.03 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.11 | $0.03 | -$0.08 | 78% 12472-3601 (16073) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.15 | $0.02 | -$0.13 | 59% 11786-8040 (19826) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.07 | $0.02 | -$0.06 | 53% 29191-26096 (55287) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.06 | $0.01 | -$0.05 | 32% 2469-5347 (7816) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 50% 634-639 (1273) |
Invested
$69.84
Value
$69.87
PnL
+$0.03
Record
73%
12849-4764 (17613)
Invested
$0.93
Value
$0.93
PnL
-$39.55
Record
47%
8323-9487 (17810)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0.03
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.08
Record
78%
12472-3601 (16073)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.13
Record
59%
11786-8040 (19826)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
29191-26096 (55287)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.05
Record
32%
2469-5347 (7816)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
634-639 (1273)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.