Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 57¢ · $683 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$683.22
$147.75
42.5¢ → 57.5¢
+35% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $351.91 | $278.87 | -$18.36 | 27% 281-771 (1052) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $142.55 | $148.12 | -$6.92 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.9¢ | $138.05 | $130.74 | -$11.44 | |
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557 | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $84.26 | $236.16 | +$151.9 | 28% 49-125 (174) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Yesavg 75.2¢ | $107.93 | $99.08 | -$8.85 | 39% 9-14 (23) |
 BiDiFakePolls<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $52.13 | $60.25 | +$8.11 | 58% 172-124 (296) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $12.29 | $8.87 | -$3.41 | 53% 6325-5540 (11865) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$351.91
Value
$278.87
PnL
-$18.36
Record
27%
281-771 (1052)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.26
Value
$236.16
PnL
+$151.9
Record
28%
49-125 (174)
Invested
$107.93
Value
$99.08
PnL
-$8.85
Record
39%
9-14 (23)
BiDiFakePolls<$100Invested
$52.13
Value
$60.25
PnL
+$8.11
Record
58%
172-124 (296)
Invested
$12.29
Value
$8.87
PnL
-$3.41
Record
53%
6325-5540 (11865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.