Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 13¢ · $658 held · ends Nov 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$657.83
$69.3
15.8¢ → 12.5¢
-21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $231.71 | $309.98 | +$78.27 | 36% 8-14 (22) |
 crypto-basenji | Noavg 53¢ | $107.54 | $181.13 | +$73.58 | 38% 166-274 (440) |
 BiDiFakePollsCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $209.99 | $115 | -$95 | 58% 171-124 (295) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 58.5¢ | $39.28 | $51.72 | +$12.45 | 73% 2680-968 (3648) |
Invested
$231.71
Value
$309.98
PnL
+$78.27
Record
36%
8-14 (22)
crypto-basenjiInvested
$107.54
Value
$181.13
PnL
+$73.58
Record
38%
166-274 (440)
BiDiFakePollsCTRInvested
$209.99
Value
$115
PnL
-$95
Record
58%
171-124 (295)
vinii<$100Invested
$39.28
Value
$51.72
PnL
+$12.45
Record
73%
2680-968 (3648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.