Will Republicans win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$156.48

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 91.5¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,168

Combined PnL+$157.92

Yes3 traders

Total Value$258.05

Total Shares2,262

Combined PnL-$1.44

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

253h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
clazzy1	Noavg 80.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$109.93	63% 445-257 (702)
vinii	Noavg 78.9¢	$336.82	$374.41	+$37.59	73% 2835-1045 (3880)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$205.52	$211.55	+$6.03	45% 2314-2840 (5154)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 86.1¢	$189.42	$180.48	+$7.51	57% 16830-12616 (29446)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$45.3	$59.96	+$2.9	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$29.1	$26.4	-$2.7	40% 22-33 (55)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$24.87	$20.1	-$4.77	48% 6235-6891 (13126)

clazzy1

Invested

$1,185.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$109.93

Record

63%

445-257 (702)

vinii

Invested

$336.82

Value

$374.41

PnL

+$37.59

Record

73%

2835-1045 (3880)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$205.52

Value

$211.55

PnL

+$6.03

Record

45%

2314-2840 (5154)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$189.42

Value

$180.48

PnL

+$7.51

Record

57%

16830-12616 (29446)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$45.3

Value

$59.96

PnL

+$2.9

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.1

Value

$26.4

PnL

-$2.7

Record

40%

22-33 (55)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.87

Value

$20.1

PnL

-$4.77

Record

48%

6235-6891 (13126)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

253h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.