Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 39¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.2K
$36.77
37.9¢ → 39¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+35 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
321h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR | Yesavg 41.4¢ | $529.12 | $498.03 | -$31.09 | 40% 22-33 (55) |
FB fbetCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $420 | $400 | -$30 | 58% 22-16 (38) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $71.78 | $166.93 | +$95.15 | 28% 5949-15562 (21511) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $87.11 | $88.29 | +$1.19 | 39% 187-287 (474) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $36.81 | $38.34 | +$1.53 | 72% 6934-2737 (9671) |
Invested
$529.12
Value
$498.03
PnL
-$31.09
Record
40%
22-33 (55)
Invested
$420
Value
$400
PnL
-$30
Record
58%
22-16 (38)
Invested
$71.78
Value
$166.93
PnL
+$95.15
Record
28%
5949-15562 (21511)
Invested
$87.11
Value
$88.29
PnL
+$1.19
Record
39%
187-287 (474)
Invested
$36.81
Value
$38.34
PnL
+$1.53
Record
72%
6934-2737 (9671)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.