Will Republicans win the Texas and Michigan Senate seats, and Democrats win Maine?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 99¢ · $926 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$926.37
-$19.63
99¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $630.34 | $614.33 | -$16.01 | 50% 9031-9106 (18137) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $71.16 | $69.97 | -$1.19 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $61.95 | $61.47 | -$0.48 | 44% 2939-3804 (6743) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $62.85 | $61.24 | -$1.61 | 92% 8456-738 (9194) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $47.25 | $48.53 | +$1.27 | 62% 13833-8580 (22413) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $21.41 | $21.35 | -$0.05 | 50% 7785-7688 (15473) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $19.56 | $19.41 | -$0.15 | 55% 25912-21183 (47095) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $16.24 | $16.5 | +$0.26 | 63% 12918-7608 (20526) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $13.41 | $11.74 | -$1.67 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $1.83 | $1.83 | +$0 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
Invested
$630.34
Value
$614.33
PnL
-$16.01
Record
50%
9031-9106 (18137)
Invested
$71.16
Value
$69.97
PnL
-$1.19
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$61.95
Value
$61.47
PnL
-$0.48
Record
44%
2939-3804 (6743)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$62.85
Value
$61.24
PnL
-$1.61
Record
92%
8456-738 (9194)
Invested
$47.25
Value
$48.53
PnL
+$1.27
Record
62%
13833-8580 (22413)
Invested
$21.41
Value
$21.35
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
7785-7688 (15473)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.56
Value
$19.41
PnL
-$0.15
Record
55%
25912-21183 (47095)
Invested
$16.24
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$0.26
Record
63%
12918-7608 (20526)
Invested
$13.41
Value
$11.74
PnL
-$1.67
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
Invested
$1.83
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.