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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will Republicans win the Iowa Governor election and Democrats win the Iowa Senate election?

Resolved No. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

33

No 57%

Total Value

$689

Combined PnL

-$193.14

Smart Money Signal

No

26 of 33 top traders (79%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No26 traders

Total Value$689

Total Shares689

Combined PnL-$119.71

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares615

Combined PnL-$73.43

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e	Noavg 99.9¢	$540.73	$541.3	+$0.57	79% 370-96 (466)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$91.86	$92.4	+$0.54	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$34.78	$34.98	+$0.2	30% 2222-5090 (7312)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$20.15	$20.32	+$0.17	47% 1630-1807 (3437)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$6.03	—	-$6.03	51% 2210-2124 (4334)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$81.65	—	-$32.9	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yes	$34.32	—	-$9.8	41% 6791-9646 (16437)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$82.24	—	-$23.73	73% 13591-5101 (18692)
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.26	—	-$3.57	49% 5883-6184 (12067)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	—	—	-$2.57	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.1¢	$264.97	—	-$50.85	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
DO donthackme	Noavg 97.4¢	$114.71	—	-$21.8	73% 12650-4633 (17283)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	—	—	+$0	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$14.34	—	+$0	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	No	—	—	+$0	47% 2081-2362 (4443)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99¢	—	—	+$0	42% 3687-5095 (8782)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1	—	-$0.95	17% 1105-5456 (6561)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 99¢	$43.56	—	-$6.55	39% 5418-8450 (13868)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	—	—	+$0	61% 15726-10029 (25755)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98¢	—	—	-$20.85	62% 14630-9158 (23788)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	—	—	+$0	51% 3540-3430 (6970)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99¢	—	—	+$0	39% 992-1523 (2515)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	—	—	+$0	49% 527-555 (1082)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$57.3	—	+$0	50% 9583-9583 (19166)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	42% 5278-7215 (12493)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e

Invested

$540.73

Value

$541.3

PnL

+$0.57

Record

79%

370-96 (466)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$91.86

Value

$92.4

PnL

+$0.54

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

Invested

$34.78

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$0.2

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$20.15

Value

$20.32

PnL

+$0.17

Record

47%

1630-1807 (3437)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$6.03

Value

—

PnL

-$6.03

Record

51%

2210-2124 (4334)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$81.65

Value

—

PnL

-$32.9

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$34.32

Value

—

PnL

-$9.8

Record

41%

6791-9646 (16437)

Invested

$82.24

Value

—

PnL

-$23.73

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

—

PnL

-$3.57

Record

49%

5883-6184 (12067)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$2.57

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

Invested

$264.97

Value

—

PnL

-$50.85

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

Invested

$114.71

Value

—

PnL

-$21.8

Record

73%

12650-4633 (17283)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$14.34

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2081-2362 (4443)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

3687-5095 (8782)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.95

Record

17%

1105-5456 (6561)

Invested

$43.56

Value

—

PnL

-$6.55

Record

39%

5418-8450 (13868)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

15726-10029 (25755)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$20.85

Record

62%

14630-9158 (23788)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3540-3430 (6970)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

992-1523 (2515)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

527-555 (1082)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$57.3

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9583-9583 (19166)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

5278-7215 (12493)

Smart Money Signal

No

26 of 33 top traders (79%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6eaee3fb...3854dd

Slug

will-republicans-win-the-iowa-governor-election-and-democrats-win-the-iowa-senate-election-20260810203058089

Traders in this Market

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e

No — $541.3

qwen300.fund

No — $92.4

luciebot

No — $34.98

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

No — $20.32

peepeepooppoop

Yes — $0

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes — $0

godblessme2026

Yes — $0

e46m3

Yes — $0

0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033

No — $0

balthazar

No — $0

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