Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win the Alaska Governor election and Democrats win the Alaska Senate election?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $136 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$135.67
-$13.17
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $49.8 | $48.43 | -$1.37 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $43.91 | $46.49 | +$2.58 | 52% 2439-2232 (4671) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $36.48 | $29.39 | -$7.09 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $7.41 | $5.07 | -$2.33 | 52% 2026-1848 (3874) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $4.95 | $4.9 | -$0.05 | 46% 2748-3289 (6037) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $5.35 | $1.24 | -$4.11 | 18% 3784-17100 (20884) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $0.95 | $0.16 | -$0.79 | 77% 11143-3403 (14546) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$49.8
Value
$48.43
PnL
-$1.37
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$43.91
Value
$46.49
PnL
+$2.58
Record
52%
2439-2232 (4671)
Invested
$36.48
Value
$29.39
PnL
-$7.09
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$7.41
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$2.33
Record
52%
2026-1848 (3874)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0.05
Record
46%
2748-3289 (6037)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.35
Value
$1.24
PnL
-$4.11
Record
18%
3784-17100 (20884)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$0.79
Record
77%
11143-3403 (14546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.