Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Republicans win older women in the midterms?
Resolved No. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Yes 100%
$0.79
-$15.66
Smart Money Signal
6 of 22 top traders (27%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | No | $0.79 | $0.79 | +$0.03 | 36% 1206-2165 (3371) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $85.18 | — | -$13.09 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 46% 2085-2401 (4486) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.06 | — | -$0.06 | 16% 4635-23687 (28322) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 63% 33619-19478 (53097) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 77.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 44% 2445-3051 (5496) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 38% 2430-3890 (6320) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 29% 494-1196 (1690) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | $31.7 | — | -$0.07 | 30% 376-878 (1254) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 531-1212 (1743) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 16605-13538 (30143) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | $31.7 | — | -$0.07 | 35% 608-1132 (1740) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 39% 1311-2070 (3381) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 40.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 38% 16029-25855 (41884) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 44% 13945-17925 (31870) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 6684-10176 (16860) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 9808-11964 (21772) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 8890-8041 (16931) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $0.99 | — | +$0 | 39% 1314-2061 (3375) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 2105-2397 (4502) |
Invested
$0.79
Value
$0.79
PnL
+$0.03
Record
36%
1206-2165 (3371)
Invested
$85.18
Value
—
PnL
-$13.09
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
46%
2085-2401 (4486)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
—
PnL
-$0.06
Record
16%
4635-23687 (28322)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
33619-19478 (53097)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
33217-64988 (98205)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
2445-3051 (5496)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
2430-3890 (6320)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
494-1196 (1690)
Invested
$31.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.07
Record
30%
376-878 (1254)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
531-1212 (1743)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
16605-13538 (30143)
Invested
$31.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.07
Record
35%
608-1132 (1740)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1311-2070 (3381)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
16029-25855 (41884)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
13945-17925 (31870)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
6684-10176 (16860)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
9808-11964 (21772)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
8890-8041 (16931)
Invested
$0.99
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1314-2061 (3375)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2105-2397 (4502)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $0.79
xtxpleasecallme
CTRYes — $0
Nadmi
CTRYes — $0
2B9S
CTRYes — $0
e46m3
No — $0
balthazar
No — $0
Lucerys
No — $0
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $0
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $0
kaxel78
No — $0