Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will Republicans win 10–11% of the Black vote?

Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.02

Combined PnL

$9.7

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares138
Combined PnL-$9.77
No8 traders
Total Value$0.02
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$19.47
Yes — 43%No — 57%
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR
Yes

Invested

$398.42

Value

—

PnL

-$18.7

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$11.63

Value

—

PnL

-$11.63

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

GO
godblessme2026CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$19.5

Value

—

PnL

+$20.61

Record

44%

13945-17925 (31870)

GO
god83743894CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

16029-25855 (41884)

Haradwaith<$100
No

Invested

$89.28

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$19.47

Record

40%

6684-10176 (16860)

E4
e46m3<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

balthazarCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

Lucerys<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

WA
WarriorH<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

16%

1392-7374 (8766)

GR
graynotebook19CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

18915-12738 (31653)

HA
haveagoodday<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3898-4513 (8411)

QU
quietparcel<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

11465-12267 (23732)

SM
smallreceipt<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

10314-12253 (22567)

EL
Elias.Thornwell<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

12942-3921 (16863)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x0070e0f0...18052a
Slug
will-republicans-win-1011-of-the-black-vote

Traders in this Market

XT

xtxpleasecallme

CTR

Yes — $0

-$18.7
0X

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

CTR

Yes — $0

-$11.63
GO

godblessme2026

CTR

Yes — $0

+$20.61
GO

god83743894

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.05

Haradwaith

No — $0.02

+$19.47
E4

e46m3

No — $0

+$0

balthazar

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0

Lucerys

No — $0

+$0
WA

WarriorH

No — $0

+$0
GR

graynotebook19

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
Trade on Polymarket