Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 23¢ · $773 held · ends Nov 4

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$773.36

Combined PnL

-$19.95

Smart Money Entry

31.6¢ → 23¢

-27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$488.13

Total Shares2,122

Combined PnL-$48.84

No3 traders

Total Value$285.23

Total Shares375

Combined PnL+$28.89

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 35.6¢	$59.91	$381.74	-$75.09	45% 2312-2836 (5148)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 71¢	$118.15	$126.47	+$9.15	36% 2121-3802 (5923)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 68.5¢	$102.33	$113.42	+$11.09	39% 187-287 (474)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$75.34	$101.69	+$26.35	28% 5949-15562 (21511)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100	Noavg 62¢	$36.69	$45.34	+$8.65	66% 608-308 (916)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$4.8	$4.7	-$0.1	40% 22-33 (55)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$59.91

Value

$381.74

PnL

-$75.09

Record

45%

2312-2836 (5148)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$118.15

Value

$126.47

PnL

+$9.15

Record

36%

2121-3802 (5923)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$102.33

Value

$113.42

PnL

+$11.09

Record

39%

187-287 (474)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$75.34

Value

$101.69

PnL

+$26.35

Record

28%

5949-15562 (21511)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100

Invested

$36.69

Value

$45.34

PnL

+$8.65

Record

66%

608-308 (916)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

40%

22-33 (55)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.7%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$304.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

404.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.