Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

16 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$203.48

Smart Money Entry

85.7¢ → 99.4¢

+16% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,268

Combined PnL+$374.27

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.8

Total Shares801

Combined PnL-$170.78

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

755h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 93.6¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$19.32	45% 2824-3398 (6222)
G.Hchen	Noavg 72.3¢	$433.97	$578.37	+$144.4	56% 362-280 (642)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 85.6¢	$860.48	$378.5	+$3.24	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
wish-	Noavg 87.3¢	$305.5	$349.3	+$43.8	79% 1206-320 (1526)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 62.9¢	$206.47	$327.61	+$121.13	47% 8368-9535 (17903)
balthazar	Noavg 74.6¢	$141.75	$189.62	+$47.87	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 86¢	$43	$49.9	+$6.9	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$35.28	$47.9	+$12.62	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 88¢	$35.2	$39.92	+$4.72	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$25.5	$26.21	+$0.07	79% 411-108 (519)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15	$19.96	+$4.96	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$10.48	$11.19	+$0.71	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 86¢	$5.93	$6.89	+$0.95	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$4.29	$5.15	+$0.86	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.4	$5.05	+$0.65	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$4.28	$4.99	+$0.71	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR	Yes	$141.43	$0.3	-$87.81	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
SI singularitymanCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$59.22	$0.26	-$54.34	41% 144-204 (348)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$3.5	$0.23	-$27.58	50% 2435-2398 (4833)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.07	$0.01	-$1.06	77% 12312-3779 (16091)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$2,217.56

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$19.32

Record

45%

2824-3398 (6222)

G.Hchen

Invested

$433.97

Value

$578.37

PnL

+$144.4

Record

56%

362-280 (642)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$860.48

Value

$378.5

PnL

+$3.24

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

wish-

Invested

$305.5

Value

$349.3

PnL

+$43.8

Record

79%

1206-320 (1526)

mildwindow27

Invested

$206.47

Value

$327.61

PnL

+$121.13

Record

47%

8368-9535 (17903)

balthazar

Invested

$141.75

Value

$189.62

PnL

+$47.87

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$43

Value

$49.9

PnL

+$6.9

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

merod<$100

Invested

$35.28

Value

$47.9

PnL

+$12.62

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$39.92

PnL

+$4.72

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$26.21

PnL

+$0.07

Record

79%

411-108 (519)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$4.96

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.48

Value

$11.19

PnL

+$0.71

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.93

Value

$6.89

PnL

+$0.95

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.29

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.86

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.65

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.28

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.71

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR

Yes

Invested

$141.43

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$87.81

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

singularitymanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.22

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$54.34

Record

41%

144-204 (348)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$27.58

Record

50%

2435-2398 (4833)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.06

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

755h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.