Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 99¢ · $280 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$280.44

Combined PnL

-$55.8

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$267.75

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$3.89

Yes7 traders

Total Value$12.69

Total Shares920

Combined PnL-$59.69

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

19% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (16 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 81% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RememberAmalek	Noavg 97.2¢	$140.01	$139.87	+$3.78	56% 982-781 (1763)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$67.91	$67.94	+$0.03	79% 11628-3057 (14685)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.86	$59.94	+$0.08	53% 6105-5419 (11524)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$26.01	$11.53	-$4.48	35% 17316-32015 (49331)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$4.3	$0.43	-$3.87	43% 1274-1693 (2967)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$31.2	$0.41	-$30.79	72% 8569-3384 (11953)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$14.76	$0.19	-$14.57	36% 1961-3488 (5449)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$4.17	$0.1	-$4.07	35% 544-993 (1537)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$1.91	$0.03	-$1.89	63% 5494-3247 (8741)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.03	$0.01	-$0.02	57% 17750-13286 (31036)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$140.01

Value

$139.87

PnL

+$3.78

Record

56%

982-781 (1763)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$67.91

Value

$67.94

PnL

+$0.03

Record

79%

11628-3057 (14685)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$59.86

Value

$59.94

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

6105-5419 (11524)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.01

Value

$11.53

PnL

-$4.48

Record

35%

17316-32015 (49331)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$3.87

Record

43%

1274-1693 (2967)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.2

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$30.79

Record

72%

8569-3384 (11953)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.76

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$14.57

Record

36%

1961-3488 (5449)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$4.07

Record

35%

544-993 (1537)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.89

Record

63%

5494-3247 (8741)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

17750-13286 (31036)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

19% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (16 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 81% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.