Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $593 held · ends Nov 4

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$593.47

Combined PnL

$17.14

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 98.7¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$588.46

Total Shares594

Combined PnL+$34.21

Yes1 trader

Total Value$5.01

Total Shares313

Combined PnL-$17.07

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GayPride	Noavg 87.1¢	$287.8	$320.99	+$33.2	49% 357-367 (724)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$68.1	$68.22	+$0.12	60% 10613-7204 (17817)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$59.62	$59.22	-$0.4	53% 6092-5333 (11425)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$72.19	$55.27	+$1.83	42% 6080-8381 (14461)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$45.37	$45.2	-$0.17	79% 10892-2961 (13853)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.74	-$0.14	54% 6327-5482 (11809)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$10.6	$9.94	-$0.35	43% 3021-3946 (6967)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$38.99	$9.87	+$0.12	50% 8123-8215 (16338)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$22.08	$5.01	-$17.07	35% 17252-31838 (49090)

GayPride

Invested

$287.8

Value

$320.99

PnL

+$33.2

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$68.1

Value

$68.22

PnL

+$0.12

Record

60%

10613-7204 (17817)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$59.62

Value

$59.22

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

6092-5333 (11425)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$72.19

Value

$55.27

PnL

+$1.83

Record

42%

6080-8381 (14461)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$45.37

Value

$45.2

PnL

-$0.17

Record

79%

10892-2961 (13853)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$0.14

Record

54%

6327-5482 (11809)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.35

Record

43%

3021-3946 (6967)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$38.99

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

8123-8215 (16338)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.08

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$17.07

Record

35%

17252-31838 (49090)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.